What YTM means on a bond, explained simply

Drafted with AI assistance, then checked and edited by the Parmbh team before publishing.

Yield to maturity (YTM) is the annual rate at which the present value of all of a bond's remaining payments equals its market price. Put simply, it expresses a bond's price as a yearly rate, on the condition that every payment arrives in full and on time and the bond is held until it matures, and it is not guaranteed. This post shows how the figure is worked out, what it assumes, and why two YTM figures for the same bond can differ.

Key points

  • Yield to maturity (YTM) is the annual rate at which the present value of a bond's remaining payments equals its market price.
  • It is worked out from the price, the coupon, the face value and the time left to maturity, so it changes whenever the price changes.
  • YTM assumes every payment is made in full and on time, and that the bond is held until it matures. If either does not happen, the result is different. The figure is not guaranteed.
  • A higher YTM usually means the market sees more risk, such as a lower credit rating. It does not raise the interest the bond's terms set.

What does yield to maturity mean?

The Reserve Bank of India's primer on government securities starts from one idea: a bond's price is the sum of the present values of all its remaining payments. Each payment is discounted at a rate, and the rate that makes those present values add up to the market price is the YTM. The primer also calls it the bond's internal rate of return.

The idea behind present value is familiar. Money due in two years is worth less than the same money in hand, because money in hand could be put to use in the meantime. Discounting is the arithmetic that shrinks a future payment to what it is worth on the day of the price.

So YTM is a way of reading a price, not a promise of a payment. A reader often asks whether a bond's YTM is the interest it pays. It isn't. The interest is set by the coupon and the face value in the bond's terms, and it is paid only if the issuer can pay.

The primer lists three things a bondholder can receive: the coupon payments, any gain or loss when the bond is sold or matures, and income from reinvesting the coupons. The coupon rate looks only at the first. YTM also counts the gap between the price and the face value, and its arithmetic treats each coupon as reinvested at the same rate.

How is YTM worked out from a bond's price?

By trial and error. The primer's Box III describes the method: start with a rate, discount every payment at it, and compare the result with the price. If the result is above the price, try a higher rate; if it is below, try a lower one. Repeat until the two match.

Hypothetical example, not a real bond and not a forecast. Take a bond with a face value of ₹1,000, a coupon of 8% p.a. paid once a year, and two years left to maturity. Its terms set two payments: ₹80 in interest after one year, then ₹80 in interest plus the ₹1,000 face value at maturity, before tax, if the issuer pays. Discount both payments at 8% p.a. and their present values come to ₹1,000, so at a price of ₹1,000 the YTM is 8% p.a., the same as the coupon, and it is not guaranteed. At 9% p.a. they come to about ₹982, and at 10% p.a. to about ₹965. So if this bond is quoted at about ₹965, its YTM is about 10% p.a., and it is not guaranteed.

That example shows the rule the primer states in its question 23. A price below face value gives a YTM above the coupon rate, and a price above face value gives one below it. In practice, the primer notes, a calculator or spreadsheet finds the rate directly.

Some bonds pay interest more than once a year, which changes the arithmetic a little. The primer's worked formula for a government security that pays every six months runs in half-year steps, using half the annual rate for each step, and then states the result as an annual rate.

What does a YTM figure assume?

More than most readers expect. Four assumptions sit inside the figure:

  • The bond is held until it matures. Sell it earlier and the sale price decides the result. The primer notes that bond prices fall when market interest rates rise, so an early sale can bring back less than was paid.
  • Every payment is made in full and on time. YTM is worked out from the payments set out in the bond's terms. If the issuer delays or misses one, the figure no longer describes what happened.
  • Each coupon can be reinvested at the same rate. The primer describes "reinvestment risk" as the chance that coupons can't be reinvested at the yield that applied when the bond was bought, if rates have fallen by the time they are paid.
  • The bond runs to its maturity date. Under regulation 15 of SEBI's NCS Regulations, an issuer may keep the right to recall its NCDs before maturity (a call option), as the terms of issue set out. If a bond is repaid early, a yield worked out to the maturity date does not describe it.

A common question is whether a bond held until maturity ends up matching its YTM. Only if all four assumptions hold, and nobody can know that on the day the figure is quoted.

YTM is also worked out from the bond's payments before tax. Interest on a bond may be taxed, and tax may be deducted at source.

Tax rules change, so check with a tax adviser.

Why can two YTM figures for the same bond differ?

The first reason is the price. YTM is tied to the price it was worked out from, so a figure quoted on one date and a figure quoted on another can differ even when nothing else about the bond has changed.

The method matters too. Two sources can start from the same price and arrive at slightly different figures, because:

  • one works in half-year steps and another in yearly steps, as the primer's half-yearly formula shows;
  • they count days differently. The primer's question 25 says India's government bond market uses a 30/360 day count, where every month is taken as 30 days. For NCDs, regulation 14 of SEBI's NCS Regulations sets interest calculation on an Actual/Actual basis;
  • they assume a different settlement date, the day the bond and the money change hands.

None of these differences changes what the bond pays. They change how its price is expressed as a rate. So when a page shows a yield, look at what it is called and the date beside it. Our explainer on coupon and yield sets out how Parmbh labels the yield figures on its pages and what each label means.

Does a higher YTM mean more risk?

In most cases, yes. A higher yield usually means the market sees more risk, such as a lower credit rating. The issuer pays no more interest because of it; the difference sits in the lower price buyers will pay.

The primer shows where part of that difference comes from. Its section on valuing corporate bonds, as written in April 2020, describes adding a spread to the yield on a central government security of the same maturity, with spreads published for different ratings. Because the spread varies with the rating, part of a corporate bond's yield reflects the chance of being paid late or not at all. Our section on credit ratings explains what the rating scale means.

Liquidity plays a part as well. The primer describes liquidity risk as not finding a buyer when you want to sell, which can force a sale at a lower price. The full list is in our section on risks to check.

When reading a bond's details, it helps to look at the issuer, the rating, the security and the maturity before looking at the yield.

Where does an NCD show the payments behind its YTM?

In its issue document. Schedule I of SEBI's NCS Regulations asks the issue document to disclose the day count convention for payment dates and to show the cash flows from the NCD by way of an illustration (item 3.3.34). Those cash flows are the payments a YTM is worked out from.

The same schedule's summary of terms covers the other inputs: the coupon and how often it is paid, the redemption date and amount, any premium or discount at redemption, the issue price, and any put or call dates and prices. Where an NCD is issued at a discount or repaid at a premium, the summary also states the effective yield that results.

Picture an NCD whose terms include a call date three years before maturity. Its cash-flow illustration and call terms, read together, show why one YTM figure tells only part of the story.

Where can I read more on Parmbh?

Our Learn page on coupon and yield has the short version, and our checklist for reading a bond page covers what to look at before the yield. The compare page shows the yield next to the coupon rate, face value and maturity date of up to three bonds, most of the inputs this post describes. You can ask Parmbh AI what any term on a bond page means.

We explain bonds; we don't tell anyone which one to buy.

Sources

This post is for learning only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any bond, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Bonds carry risks, including the risk that the issuer does not pay on time or at all. Yields are not guaranteed, and figures are as of the dates shown. Parmbh earns a commission from Aspero or our partners when you invest through us. It is included in the price or terms you get from Aspero or the partner. We never hold your money. Before you invest, read the issuer’s documents and speak to a SEBI-registered adviser.

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